In its latest energy outlook, Goldman Sachs has projected that the OPEC+ alliance is on track to lift oil production by 410,000 barrels per day in August 2025. This anticipated supply bump marks the second consecutive monthly increase, following a similar uptick expected in July. The move reflects the group’s intention to gradually scale back voluntary production cuts and meet rising summer demand across global markets.

Goldman Sachs analysts believe the timing of the increase is directly tied to improving market fundamentals and higher seasonal consumption, particularly during the peak travel months in the Northern Hemisphere. The strategy appears aimed at restoring a balanced supply chain while also keeping energy prices in check.

More Articles: 

OPEC+ Eyes Supply Recovery as Market Tightens

With oil inventories shrinking and demand rebounding, OPEC+ seems poised to gradually unwind the output reductions it adopted to stabilize the market earlier this year. According to Goldman’s report, the coalition of oil-producing nations could roll out a two-stage production hike—one beginning in July, followed by another in August—adding more than 800,000 barrels per day in total.

This cautious ramp-up signals OPEC+'s ongoing effort to remain united while protecting its market share. It also reflects a measured response to what Goldman Sachs describes as “tight short-term fundamentals” in the oil market—especially with refineries boosting operations and consumers returning to the roads post-pandemic.

Crude Prices Hold Steady Amid Output Shift

Despite the projected increase in oil supply, Goldman Sachs hasn’t altered its crude price forecast. The investment bank is still calling for Brent crude to hover around $60 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is expected to average $56 per barrel for the remainder of 2025.

This pricing outlook suggests that the market may already be pricing in the anticipated output hikes. Goldman also notes that broader economic uncertainty and geopolitical risks could still exert downward pressure on energy prices, even as supply rebounds.

The forecast comes at a time when OPEC+ is navigating a delicate balancing act—easing back into higher output levels without triggering oversupply or causing internal rifts among member nations.

Disclaimer:

This article is an original summary and analysis based on information from Reuters and commentary by Goldman Sachs, published June 2, 2025. Procapitas makes every effort to present content that is accurate and independently written. Readers are encouraged to consult financial professionals or official data before making any market-based decisions.

Source:

Reuters - Goldman Sachs sees OPEC+ raising oil output by 0.41 mb/d in August