With the June 2 California gubernatorial primary underway, the latest polls show Democrat Xavier Becerra leading the crowded field of contenders vying to replace outgoing Gov. Gavin Newsom. Behind him, Republican Steve Hilton and Democrat Tom Steyer are locked in a tight battle for the second spot that could determine who advances to the November general election under California’s top‑two system. Voters are closely watching as candidates make their final pitches and polling margins shift in the final days before ballots are tallied.

Latest Polling: Who’s Leading?

Recent statewide surveys highlight the evolving dynamics of the race:

  • The Public Policy Institute of California poll shows Becerra at 23% support, with Hilton at 20%, followed by Tom Steyer at 15%, Republican Chad Bianco at 13%, and Democrat Katie Porter at 12% among likely primary voters — a broad field with multiple candidates still competitive.
  • An Emerson College/Inside California Politics poll finds Becerra leading more narrowly at 28%, with Steyer close behind at 22% and Hilton at 21% indicating a tight three‑way contest for the two general election spots.

These polls suggest Becerra has consolidated Democratic support after earlier missteps in his campaign, while the Republican and Democratic challengers battle for positioning in the crowded field.

How the Primary Works

California uses a top‑two primary system, meaning all candidates regardless of party compete in the same ballot, and the two with the most votes move on to the November general election. This system can result in two Democrats, two Republicans, or one from each party advancing.

Polling suggests the likely top‑two advancing candidates could be Becerra and either Hilton or Steyer, though late shifts in voter preference especially among undecided voters could change the outcome.

Key Contenders in the Race

Here are some of the major candidates shaping the polls and debate:

Xavier Becerra — A Democrat and former U.S. Health and Human Services secretary with deep government experience, Becerra has surged in polls after earlier struggles, appealing to voters on economic and leadership issues.

Steve Hilton — A Republican and former UK political strategist endorsed by former President Donald Trump, Hilton has attracted strong GOP support and is positioning himself as a conservative alternative in a traditionally Democratic state.

Tom Steyer — Billionaire environmental activist and Democratic candidate, Steyer has poured significant resources into his campaign and remains competitive for a top‑two slot, though his support is slightly behind Hilton in some polls.

Matt Mahan — San Jose’s mayor and a Democratic candidate backed by tech donors, Mahan polls in the lower single digits but has gained attention for his pitch focused on local governance experience.

Other contenders include Democrats Katie Porter, Albuquerque native and former congressmember, and Republican Chad Bianco, both polling modestly as the field narrows.

Political Context & Trends

The 2026 governor’s race is drawing attention because:

  • No incumbent is running; Gov. Gavin Newsom is term‑limited, opening a rare open seat in the nation’s most populous state.
  • Democrats have been split among multiple candidates, raising early concerns that Republican contenders could break through under California’s top‑two system.
  • Recent polling suggests Democrats may regain footing with Becerra’s momentum, but the GOP remains competitive through Hilton’s consolidation of conservative support.

Political analysts also note that absentee and mail‑in ballots common in California’s elections — mean results may take days to finalize after the June 2 primary.

What Voters Are Focusing On

Key issues driving voter decisions include the high cost of living, housing affordability, homelessness, public safety and California’s economic future all themes the leading candidates have made central to their campaigns.

Both sides of the aisle are urging supporters to return mail‑in ballots early as part of the final push, with campaigns holding rallies and making last‑minute pitches in cities across the state.

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A Close, Unpredictable Primary

As the primary wraps up, public opinion polls show Xavier Becerra with the edge, while Steve Hilton and Tom Steyer are in a tight race for second place and likely a shot at the November general election. With California’s unique election system and a crowded field of candidates, the outcome remains uncertain until ballots are counted.